Surprise …Surprise and Surprise : The recent election results took many by surprise, including pollsters, the media, and those involved in shaping political narratives. This marks the second consecutive election where exit polls failed to capture the true sentiments of voters, raising questions about whether the electorate is sending a message to those tasked with reading the political landscape.

Here are some key takeaways from this election:

• Media Cannot Control Elections: The overly vocal media, long accustomed to setting narratives and influencing voter perspectives, has been firmly reminded that it is the electorate that reigns supreme in Indian democracy. Voters made it clear that while the media can inform, it should not overstep its role by trying to dictate the outcome of elections. It’s time for media outlets to refocus on their duty, rather than attempting to manipulate public opinion. The media, as a key pillar of Indian democracy, must maintain its independence and avoid becoming a tool for political parties.

• Pollsters Need a Reality Check: Oops.. with back-to-back failures in predicting election outcomes, pollsters are now facing a crisis of credibility. This is troubling for an industry poised for growth, as India holds elections almost every six months. Pollsters must stop imposing high-level narratives on exit polls and recognize that understanding political trends requires grassroots engagement, not just commentary from media ivory towers.

• The Caste-Centric Narrative Needs to Evolve: Much of the media, analysts, pollster discourse centered on caste equations, with pundits suggesting that electoral outcomes could be predicted solely by caste alignments. However, this election has shown that while caste politics is still present, it’s not the only factor determining results. Solely focussing on caste arithmetic will push voters away from news & TV channel. Voters care about work and merit, signaling that performance and governance matter more than caste-based strategies.

• Pro-Incumbency is the new phenomenon:  While growing, I never heard the word pro-incumbency. I have been told any government which is in power will find difficult to return to power because of anti-incumbency. The notion of pro-incumbency has emerged as a new phenomenon in Indian politics. Once, it was widely believed that incumbents had a tough time staying in power, but since 2014, this has changed. PM Modi and the BJP demonstrated that good governance can secure re-election, motivating other parties to deliver meaningful results if they wish to stay relevant.

• BJP Can Win Without PM Modi’s Direct Involvement: In these elections, including Haryana, BJP’s success was achieved with minimal direct involvement from PM Modi. This shows the growing strength of local leadership within the party, though “Brand Modi” remains a significant factor in national elections. It also proves the point that Indian voters are smart to differentiate between general and assembly elections.

• Reforms Back on the Agenda: With this victory, PM Modi and the BJP are expected to push forward with reforms that had slowed after the national elections. A rejuvenated government is likely to bring positive changes to key sectors, spurred by a renewed mandate from the people.

• Congress Faces Continued Decline: Congress’s inability to defeat the BJP, even after a decade of incumbency in states like Haryana, reflects a deeper crisis. Internal factionalism, reliance on caste politics, and a lack of vision are major contributors to Congress’s continued electoral losses. The party’s traditional strategies no longer resonate with voters, who are increasingly opting for alternatives. The key message for Congress is that the BJP is likely to remain the first-choice party in most states. However, voters who oppose the BJP will seek the strongest alternative, and Congress risks losing its position to regional parties. Delhi & Punjab are the two most recent example. This poses a serious challenge for the party’s future.

• Regional Parties on the Brink: Voting patterns indicate that elections are becoming increasingly bipolar, with contests primarily between the BJP and Congress or BJP and regional parties. This trend could marginalize regional players, as voters seeking a non-BJP option may prefer Congress due to its national presence. However, it also depends on how Congress leadership invest in building their organization in the states. The current trends indicates that Congress is happy lose space to regional parties to keep BJP away from power.

• Voters Demand Accountability: You can’t fool the voters twice. Congress’s improved performance in the Lok Sabha elections was driven by promises of constitutional protection, caste-based reservations, and financial aid. However, voters are quick to spot inconsistencies, such as increased fuel prices in states governed by Congress, leading to a growing trust gap between the party and the electorate. Congress, despite running a campaign to “save democracy,” lacks internal democracy within the party, where decisions are largely driven by the preferences of the Gandhi family.

It is crucial for Congress to move away from relying on negative votes and focus on securing positive mandates. Their expectation that voters will eventually grow dissatisfied with the current government and turn to Congress has been undermined by the BJP’s pro-incumbency success. Congress is gradually losing ground to regional parties in many states, and without a strategic shift, voters may continue seeking leadership alternatives. A proactive, vision-driven approach is essential if Congress wants to remain relevant in the changing political landscape.